Lee Hsi-min, a retired admiral and former chief of general staff of Taiwan's armed forces, told Nikkei Asia in a recent interview that Taipei needs to prioritize asymmetric weapons to combat Beijing's much greater firepower.
Instead of conventional weapons such as fighter jets, tanks and warships, Lee said Taiwan should prioritize weapons that are cost-effective and harder for Beijing to destroy, and set up civilian units, mirroring Ukraine's Territorial Defense Force.
"Taiwan doesn't have a sufficient sense of urgency to prepare for a Chinese attack," Lee said. He cited a warning by Adm. Philip Davidson, former commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, who told Congress last year that a Chinese invasion could happen by 2027, saying that date "is only five years from now, so time is so urgent for us."
Lee's views on reforming Taiwan's military enjoy strong backing in the U.S., but are yet to be widely accepted within the Taiwanese ruling establishment. Without naming names, he took swipes at Taiwanese politicians who advocated preventing a Chinese attack by pushing Taiwan to agree to "unification," and others, whom he accused of unnecessarily provoking Beijing.
"Differences in political ideologies and national identity also affect the will to defend," Lee said. "Political divisions within the country are undermining our national will and capabilities to fend off Beijing's aggression."
"Does Taiwan want to accept the 'one country, two systems' or take the Hong Kong or Xinjiang model? I doubt it. Even if China is fully democratized, I still doubt it," he said.
Lee's comments come as political parties begin to select candidates for local and mayoral elections in November. That vote is widely seen as a litmus test for the presidential poll in January 2024. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party is China-skeptic, while the main opposition Kuomintang has sought closer ties with Beijing. Neither, however, is pushing for drastic changes in national defense.
Taiwan has come under pressure from the U.S. to improve and adjust its defense capabilities and weapons. Tsai, a pro-status quo president, has increased defense spending but has yet to reform the armed forces and related institutions in the way that Lee and American experts are calling for.
Asked if the U.S. would send troops to Taiwan if an invasion happened, Lee declined to speculate: "I'm not a fortuneteller," he said, adding that Washington would come to the rescue if it were in its national interest.
"The answer is for Taiwan to integrate its security with U.S. interests -- and how to do so is a political, not military, question -- on issues such as freedom, justice, human rights," he said. "But Taiwan also needs to show the will to defend itself."
Lee said that Taipei and Washington need a strategy on military cooperation, adding that one option is for Taiwan to focus on close-range defense and the U.S. to concentrate on long-range battles.
Central to his call for reform is to overcome China's military superiority over Taiwan by embracing what he terms the "overall defense concept," commonly known as "porcupine" asymmetric defense.
"Given the discrepancies in defense resources across the strait, we have no way of competing against the People's Liberation Army in conventional capabilities," the former defense chief said.
In 2019, PLA expenditure exceeded $250 billion, dwarfing Taiwan's defense budget of $11 billion. The solution is not to dial up spending because Beijing would also double down as a result, he said, leading to an "arms race" that Taiwan cannot win.
"We don't have deterrence by alliances, because Taiwan doesn't have formal military pacts with other countries, or nuclear deterrence. But deterrence by denial can deter a Chinese invasion by raising the cost for China via asymmetric defense. Even if they were willing to pay the price, the strategy adds uncertainty to whether they could take over Taiwan," Lee said.
Some experts are concerned that Beijing might attempt to take advantage of the American focus on Ukraine to increase the pressure on Taiwan. The PLA has significantly dialed up military activity around Taiwan over the past year, sending large groups of fighter jets, bombers and other aircraft into Taiwan's air defense identification zone, moves branded "peacetime aggression" by Lee. China's government has also repeated threats to attack and annex Taiwan.
"The first key is survivability. Taiwan needs weapons which are not easily targeted by long-range missiles or airstrikes, so the invaders have to get closer to attack, which increases their vulnerability. The second is to have a large number of small, distributed, lethal weapons across the country, so the invaders can expect a strong resistance even when they manage to cross the strait and come over, especially when they are bigger in size and easier to be targeted."
Cost is also a concern, with Lee pointing to the high price of conventional weapons such as tanks and submarines. The U.S. government has approved another round of arms sales, including tanks, to Taiwan, amounting to more than $100 million, according to Taiwan's foreign affairs ministry.
Last year, Taiwan's navy scrapped a 31.6 billion New Taiwan dollar ($1.1 billion) project to build 60 mini missile assault boats. But Lee said they are more suitable than submarines.
"Submarines are important, but one costs more than 50 billion Taiwan dollars, which could have been used to build hundreds of mini-missile assault boats. Given the limited resources, which is more effective? It's about resource allocation," he said.
Lee also advocated for Taiwan to emulate Ukraine's Territory Defense Force, creating a standing, all-volunteer, Taiwanese territorial defense force.
"The TDF is not about guerrilla warfare. It is to tell the PRC: 'Even if you can defeat our air force and our navy, and even if you successfully land on Taiwanese territory, you still cannot occupy and control Taiwan because the people stand ready to defend. So don't invade.'"
Citing Ukraine's success in holding down Russian aggressors, Lee said a Taiwanese territorial defense force will compel Beijing to see that any military occupation will be violent and prolonged, helping deter Chinese aggression. In addition, it will also strengthen deterrence by building and demonstrating national resolve.
-- Additional reporting by Lauly Li and Cheng Ting-fang.